By Neil Beers
September 4, 2009
So Bob Prechter is bearish again.
That may be no surprise to some,
but recall that Prechter was about the only bull on February 23 of this year
when he covered the short position he had recommended on July 17, 2007. That was
nearly two years later and 800 points lower in the S&P. And the Daily Sentiment
Index (DSI) reading for the S&P had gotten down to only 3% bulls!
His February 2009 Elliott Wave
Theorist explained, "The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom
and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short." Elliott Wave
analysis, the DSI, and other indicators suggested it was time for a
Primary-degree bear market rally. And that is what we got.
Now in his August 2009 Theorist,
Bob explains what "the prudent thing to do" in the markets is, based on the same
Elliott wave pattern and sentiment indicators -- plus the Dow's 3/8 Fibonacci
retracement from the March 9 low.
For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free
10-page July issue of Prechter's
Elliott Wave Theorist.
What's so special about
Fibonacci? And why is a certain level of Fibonacci retracement so
significant in conjunction with The Wave Principle? Well...
In its broadest sense, the Wave
Principle suggests the idea that the same law [the Golden Ratio] that shapes
living creatures and galaxies is inherent in the spirit and activities of men
en masse. Because the stock market is the most meticulously tabulated
reflector of mass psychology in the world, its data produce an excellent
recording of man's social psychological states and trends. This record of the
fluctuating self-evaluation of social man's own productive enterprise makes
manifest specific patterns of progress and regress. What the Wave Principle
says is that mankind's progress (of which the stock market is a popularly
determined valuation) does not occur in a straight line, does not occur
randomly, and does not occur cyclically. Rather, progress takes place in a
"three steps forward, two steps back" fashion, a form that nature prefers.
More grandly, as the activity of social man is linked to the Fibonacci
sequence and the spiral pattern of progression, it is apparently no exception
to the general law of ordered growth in the universe. ... The briefest way to
express this principle is a simple mathematical statement: the 1.618 ratio.
-Elliott Wave Principle, chapter 3
Fibonacci ratios in conjunction
with The Wave Principle can help you anticipate trend changes. They allow you to
calculate specific price levels of when and where a wave is likely to end. In
this case, where the rally from the March 9 low is likely to end. There are
several Fibonacci retracements that appear most commonly, so the market could of
course move higher before it settles on the next wave down, "but we are no
longer compelled to wait."
Bob Prechter's August Elliott
Wave Theorist published a week and a half early: he did so to give
subscribers time to prepare for what's ahead. The issue provides a list of
levels that mark Fibonacci and Elliott-wave related retracements for the rally.
He analyzes which one is the most likely end point, and even explains how you
can make the most of the waning rally.
You don't have to be taken by
surprise. Get the latest Elliott Wave Theorist and you'll see where the
rally is likely to end. Think about the difference this knowledge can make for
For more analysis from Robert
Prechter, download a FREE 10-page July issue of
The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with
hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the
worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.
Neil Beers has a bachelors degrees
in political science and philosophy, and a masters in classical languages. His
broad range of study and focus on ancient and modern thought led him to Elliott
Wave International to research and write about the Wave Principle, Socionomics,
and human social behavior.