SilverGoldMarketNews   Home | Buying Silver/Gold | Archives | Mining | Contact

News, Information, Commentary and Resource Links for Investors in the Current Great Silver/Gold Bull Market

 
 

Site Navigation
 Home
 Buying Silver

 Archives
 Mining
 Contact

 Disclaimer
 Privacy

Recommended
Archives
 Ted Butler
 Jason Hommel
 Douglas Kanarowski
 Clive Maund
 David Morgan
 Jim Otis
 Charles Savoie

Continuous Charts
 Gold
 Silver
 Gold/Silver
 Silver/Gold
 $USD Index
 Dow Industrials

Futures Charts
 COMEX Silver Daily
 COMEX Silver Weekly
 COMEX Silver Monthly
 CBOT Silver Daily
 CBOT Silver Weekly
 CBOT Silver Monthly

 COMEX Gold Daily
 COMEX Gold Weekly
 COMEX Gold Monthly
 CBOT Gold Daily
 CBOT Gold Weekly

 CBOT Gold Monthly

Resource Links
 CoinInfo.com
 Commitments of Traders
 CMI Gold & Silver
 Forex Traders
 Forex Trading
 GATA
 Gold Silver Worlds
 Harvey Organ's Report
 Honest Money Report
 Kwaves
 Kitco
 Kitco Casey

 Kitco Silver
 Metal Prices
 Money Metals Exchange
 Money Changer
 Moon Phase Calendar
 Resource Investor
 Silver Futures News
 SilverCoins.com
 Silver Bear Cafe
 Silver Institute
 Silver Prices 1344-1998
 Silver Strategies
 TheSilverExchange
 To Buy and Sell Silver
 Trading Charts

 Turd Fergeson's Metal Report

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

 

 

 

 

   
   

Search Precious Metal, Mining and Financial News

a

SLV ETF Bull Market Remains Intact

SLV ETF Trading - Panic, Shouting & Media Hype!

Itís all too easy to lose yourself and your position under emotional strain.

Letís face it, itís hard to think straight when a voice inside your head is screaming GET ME OUT OF HERE!

And donít think emotional reflexes are the preserve of amateurís only. Professional Money Managers are certainly not immune to panics, especially since they are judged on much shorter timeframes and scrutinized intensely against benchmarks and peers.

That said we find 2 trading techniques help us to sit tight with our positions:

1 Ė Never bet the Farm.
2 Ė Remain focused on the big picture at all times.

Regarding rule 1: The winner in investing is the one who stays in the game the longest. No matter what kind of slam dunk you think youíve got, DONíT go betting the farm, strange things happen under the Sun! The last thing you want to do is take a loss that takes you out of the game PERMANENTLY. Size your positions accordingly.

Regarding Rule 2: The best way (we find) to remove emotions from the picture is to keep an Eagle eye on the charts. And here we find it best to start with longer dated monthly charts which give us a sense of where price action has been.

Take our current favourite Ė Silver or SLV the Silver Bullion ETF:

Figure 1 - SLV ETF monthly still in long-term uptrend

Some noteworthy items:

* SLV etf has been in a bull market since 2001 and the price has risen by 5X.

* Since 2002 the 3rd and 4th quarters of each year have been strong for SLV.

* The current correction is similar in magnitude to the early 2004 correction.

* Throughout all gut wrenching corrections, the price has remained above the blue uptrend line.

* The price is now at significant support in the form of the abovementioned uptrend line; horizontal support (second blue line) and 50 Month Moving Average (red circle).

Synopsis: Whilst it is impossible to say whether support will hold (we discuss the fundamentals below) we do think the current level offers an excellent entry point once we have a low risk setup in our trading model.

Letís take a closer look:

Figure 2 - SLV ETF Weekly Chart

The takeaways from the above chart:

  1. The SLV double top in July ($19.17) was difficult to identify because it was somewhat short of the exuberant $20.73 reached in February. However the extreme divergence in the RSI (top) and MACD (bottom) was an early sign that SLV had topped out.

  2. Once the price dropped below support at $16 (blue line and 50-week moving average) the chart painted a technical target of around $12 (lower blue line).

  3. The correction has followed a classic Elliot Wave A-B-C (marked above) where the magnitude of wave C equals Wave A and once again paints a target for SLV of $12 (red circle).

  4. In addition to representing a technical correction target, $12 is strong support on the monthly chart (figure 1) as well as the August 2007 bottom and 200-Week Moving average.

  5. We would be amiss if we didnít point out that $12 has not been reached just yet.

And finally, to round off the picture lets zoom in on the daily chart for SLV:

Figure 3 - SLV ETF Trading Chart, Daily

Noteworthy items here are the 2 gap down events (blue circles) and the potential double bottom in the RSI (top).

The rationale behind gap events in technical parlance is that markets HATE a vacuum and usually end up backing and filling the gaps Ė at least that has been our experience.

The double bottom on the RSI is a hopeful sign that the downward price action is decelerating.

Long-Term Fundamentals for SLV

The fundamentals are probably even more bullish now than before the sell-off (we know thatís no consolation). Supply remains slow coming on-stream as new mines take months and years to get up to full production.

On the demand side, if you believe (as we do) that Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) are the antithesis of financial paper assets. And the institutions who are bastions of those financial assets remain seriously encumbered, with more to come, then youíd agree that the demand for SLV will remain robust.

Anecdotally, the Silver Bullion dealers we have spoken to all tell us that demand for Physical Silver (of which SLV is the ETF) has actually increased since the sell-off and Silver Rounds and Bars are hard to come by.

To conclude: Technically we are near a buy zone for SLV. Whilst we may yet go down to test $12 we are now close enough to the Buy Zone for probabilities to be skewed in our favour. WE will be looking at SLV at these prices over the next few weeks for a possible entry!

More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribersÖ

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 6 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return. Reach Chris at: Chris [at] theGoldAndOilGuy [dot] com

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

 

 

Site Design and Maintenance Services by: Sundancer Graphics, Inc



© 2015 Sundancer Graphics, Inc.