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May 20 US vs. Global Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 Chris Vermeulen
Our continued research into the current price rotation in the US and global markets suggest that we are going to continue to experience moderately high price volatility across all markets over the next 30 to 60+ days – possibly well into the end of 2019. As we suggested, above, the uncertainty relating to the multiple election events and global trade/geopolitical events do not present a foundation of calm and collected future guidance. The only thing we can suggest regarding these future expectations is that the US and more mature global markets should be able to navigate these uncertain times much more effectively than emerging or “at risk” foreign markets...

May 20 US vs. Global Sector Rotation – What Next? Part II Chris Vermeulen
In Part One of this research post, we highlighted and discussed the many geopolitical and economic factors that are driving the market price volatility over the past 30+ days in addition to highlighting some of the key elements/factors of the next 15+ days that may continue to drive market volatility higher. The three key elements we discussed were the US Presidential Elections, the European Elections (European Union Elections) and the US/China Trade Discussions. Each of these components is big enough to reflect many trillions of dollars in economic output and, individually, each of these components could drive increased price volatility over the next 30+ days. Combined, should these events somehow combine into a massive disruption event, they could...

May 20 Gold Market Update Clive Maund
Gold and silver dropping back again late last week had investors in the Precious Metals sector feeling despondent, especially as their fears were magnified by at least one analyst calling for gold to drop to the low $900’s or even lower, which is normal when prices sink, but our charts are instead suggesting that gold and silver are close to completing giant bottoming patterns that started to form (in the case of gold) as far back as 2013. We can best see gold’s potential giant base pattern on a 10-year chart. It can be described as a complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom or as a Saucer, and is best considered to be both, or perhaps as a hybrid having the characteristics of both patterns...

 
 

May 20 Silver Market Update Clive Maund
Silver looks considerably weaker than gold, although that is normal at this stage in the cycle. It is still considered likely that it is forming a Double Bottom with its lows of late 2015, and if so then the support at those lows should hold. On silver’s 1-year chart it still looks like it is moving to complete a Cup & Handle base, because the pattern roughly parallels the pattern completing in gold, although the downwardly skewed Handle is driving the price back down towards the vicinity of the lows of the Cup. A breakout from the Handle downtrend will be bullish although this doesn’t look likely short-term because of adverse seasonal factors...

May 20 Utter Insanity… Dave Kranzler
The prized “jewels” in the stock market – i.e. the stocks with the best performance over the last 4 months – are the ones with escalating operating losses on increasing revenues. But the stocks soar when the earnings announcement hits the tape with the phrase “beat estimates” – which means the company lost slightly less money than forecast by Wall Street’s brightest. But these companies all share a common trait: a tragically flawed business model in which the only way to grow revenues is to charge the end user a price that does not cover the all-in cost of producing the product or providing the service but which attracts end-users because the price is lower than the competition...

May 20 Three Safe-Haven Reasons to Own Gold Rick Mills
In this article, we take a look at the situation that is developing off the coast of Iran, and how a military engagement could seriously backfire on the US. We’ll also detail the reasons why starting a shooting war wouldn’t be a bad idea for Trump to get eyes off the constitutional crisis that is developing over his administration's refusal to follow established legal procedures; and share a few thoughts on the US-China trade war. All three situations carry the risk of a major destabilization of the world order, and are excellent reasons to own gold, the best safe-haven asset money can buy...

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May 20 Gold Miners’ Q1’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton
The major gold miners’ stocks are drifting sideways with gold, their early-year momentum sapped by the recent stock-market euphoria. But they are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios, a rare sector that surges when stock markets weaken. Their just-reported Q1’19 results reveal how gold miners are faring as a sector, and their current fundamentals are way better than bearish psychology implies. The wild market action in Q4’18 again emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks. Every portfolio needs a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks. As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 19.8% largely in that quarter to nearly enter a bear market, the leading gold-stock ETF rallied 11.4% higher in that span. That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing...

May 20 Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? Jordan Roy-Byrne
Although most of the precious metals sector has trended lower in recent months, Gold has held up well. It and the other, weaker components of precious metals got a boost on Monday when China retaliated with tariffs of its own. There has been little follow through since. This begs the question, will a trade war lead to a new bull market in precious metals? The short answer is yes if it leads to a downturn and Fed rate cuts. Rate cuts coupled with higher inflation due to the tariffs is a very bullish combination for precious metals...

May 20 CDNX Junior Miners Index: Positive Action Morris Hubbartt
Here are today's videos and charts (double-click to enlarge): SFS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis; SF60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis; SF Trader Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis; SFJ Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis...

 
 

May 17 Silver Guesswork and Silver Proof Charles Savoie
Have any of you heard anything faintly significant in many months regarding the proposed return of Texas (UTIMCO) gold, to the State of Texas? No, and few if any members of the Texas State Legislature act like they care anymore about that gold, than about a chewing gum wrapper that the wind blew past them on a sidewalk! State legislatures are often like Congress---corruption abounds. In Texas legislature we currently have a Garnet Coleman (stopped for driving 94MPH, lied about the cop); Sarah Davis (named one of the ten worst by Texas Monthly); another named Charlie Geren (accused of a campaign manager using Child Protective Services to harass a political competitor); Ron Reynolds (served jail term for barratry, legal malpractice)...

May 17 Primary Silver Producers Stuck in Quicksand and Still Sinking Jeff Clark
As we outlined in our silver supply/demand crunch article, the silver market has entered a structural imbalance. It is not temporary. Global supply is locked into a decline, leaving the industry ill-equipped to respond meaningfully to any spike in demand of physical metal for the foreseeable future. Underpinning the erosion in supply is the deterioration in mine production. This is important, because most of the bullion you and I buy comes from newly-mined silver. Secondary sales (products that have been previously bought and sold) will always have a place in the bullion industry—and a growing role in a supply/demand crunch—but to be prepared for the kind of rush Mike Maloney see ahead, mine production will need to be healthy and rising...

May 17 Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports Rick Mills
On Friday the United States made good on its threat to ratchet up the trade war against China, after the two parties failed, after weeks of negotiations, to reach a deal. The Trump administration hiked tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, adding to the $50 billion in goods already being taxed at that level. The tariff hikes went into effect at midnight on Thursday. The negotiations appeared to be going well up until a couple of days ago, when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer accused the Chinese of reneging on earlier commitments. Nobody outside the trade delegations knows what went on behind closed doors in Washington, but it appears to us that...

May 16 How Sustainable is the Move into Safe Havens? Chris Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen. Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to share his thoughts on the recent flow of money into safe haven assets. During the selloff, yesterday in US markets money moved into bonds, gold, and back into the USD. We discuss just how long this run could last and which sectors Chris is the most bullish on...

May 16 Bullion Banks Gearing Up to Dump Gold One More Time David Brady
GOLD is looking increasingly bullish, and why shouldn’t it? Gold in yuan terms has bounced off its 200-day moving average and is testing prior highs. Bond yields and real rates are dumping to new lows. Stocks are in crash mode, increasing expectations for rate cuts and QE. We have just broken downtrend resistance, a.k.a. the bull flag, at 1291 and are now seeing higher lows and higher highs. So what is there to worry about? The same old problem: the Commercials, i.e. the Bullion Banks, are loading up short again...

May 16 Crazy Not! Much Higher Gold Prices Gary Christenson
Others have observed the price of gold is the inverse of trust in central banks, fiat currencies, and politicians. That explains why the financial and political elite suppress COMEX paper gold prices. The currently popular nonsense is MMT—Modern Monetary Theory or Magic Money Tree economics. Print and spend trillions of digital currency units on political projects, boondoggles, and giveaways to buy votes. What could go wrong after creating trillions in “free” dollars? Well… history shows other countries have tried and failed. The MMT socialists in the U.S. are courting disaster...

May 16 Gold on the Verge of a Massive Move Przemyslaw Radomski
Gold hasn't had much success moving higher yesterday. Its breakout above the neckline of the previously completed head-and-shoulders pattern is close to being invalidated. Will that invalidation happen prior to or shortly after the Friday's options expiry? In assessing the short-term outlook, we look at many factors, including the gold miners-to-gold ratio dynamics. Will they lead both metals on their upcoming move? In addition to explaining the above, in today's analysis, we'll feature our near-term downside targets for silver and mining stocks. But first, a few words of introduction...

May 16 The End of the Oil Giants: And what it Means SRSRocco
Since oil overtook coal and biomass during the earlier part of the 20th century, the oil industry has been the sole self-powered supply chain of the industrial world. All other forms of energy depend on it, coal, natural gas, nuclear, all so-called “renewables”, and all the way to feed and food production. In our estimates, the oil industry entered terminal decline about 7 years ago and this decline will be over by about 2030 or before. In our view, the decline of Ghawar corroborates that this end is most likely than not going to be abrupt...

May 16 Crude Oil Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level Chris Vermeulen
Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level. The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher. The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions...

May 16 April Retail Sales Soiled the Bed Sheets Dave Kranzler
We know that the average household – i.e the 80-90% of all households – are struggling under the weight of record monthly debt service requirements on a record amount of consumer debt. This plight is made worse by the fact that real wages are declining. Not to judge Wall Street analysts harshly (said sarcastically), but it should be obvious that retail sales were going to show a decline in April. Imagine how bad the actual number must be if the Government has to release a guesstimated report showing a nominal decline...

May 15 Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins Chris Vermeulen
Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely. We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months. Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall. The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275. We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves. In both cases, we issued...

May 15 Recalling 2010 Craig Hemke
So let's take an in-depth look at what transpired during the first half of 2010 for the Dollar Index, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver. The first half of 2010 saw a huge gain in the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index rose from 78 to 88 for nearly a 13% gain. Why? This was primarily due to a strong U.S. economy. Those "green shoots" were everywhere, and 2010 Q2 GDP came in at 3.7%. Chairman Bernanke and The Fed were hailed as geniuses and heroes. But then something unexpected happened. The U.S. economy rolled over, those green shoots withered, and the dollar began to fall. U.S. GDP fell to just 1.0% by Q4 and then contracted by 1.0% in Q1 of 2011. As economic growth ground to a halt, the dollar index reversed and suddenly went into a 15% free fall...

May 15 Gold And Silver May Be Setting Up For A Big Move Dave Kranzler
Gold, silver and mining stocks are deeply oversold technically. It’s obvious that the western Central Banks are throwing everything they can at the gold price via the paper derivative gold markets in London and NYC in an attempt to prevent a massive move higher. The data for gold and silver futures on the Comex show that the banks are working hard to stunt any rally by unloading loads of paper gold on the market. This effort is rewarding the large physical gold importing countries in the east. India’s net import of gold jumped by 27 per cent to 192.4 tonnes in the first quarter of calendar year 2019 from 151 tonnes in the same period last year. In April India unofficially imported 121 tonnes of gold, up significantly from April 2018. The increase in import activity is attributable to the lower gold price...

May 15 Tariffs Terror: Stocks Crash & Gold Soars Stewart Thomson
May 15 Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II Chris Vermeulen
May 15 Tuesday Report 5/14/2019 GoldPredict
May 14 Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? Radomski
May 14 News & Views May 2019 Michael J. Kosares
May 13 How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends Chris Vermeulen
May 13 Global Synchronized Depression: Buy Gold and Silver not Copper Dave Kranzler
May 13 Weekend Newsletter 5/12/2019 GoldPredict
May 13 Precious Metals Are Setting Up for a Major Rally... SRSRocco
May 13 Big US Stocks’ Q1’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton
May 13 GOLD Capped in the Short-Term, But Pressure Building... David Brady
May 13 Gold Bullion Strong But Junior Miners Swoon Morris Hubbartt
May 13 Make America’s Economy Great Again Rick Mills
May 13 US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China... Chris Vermeulen

 
 
 

 

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